1865: THE COUNTERFEITER
External Threat
Counterfeit Currency in Circulation
33-50%
of all bills were fake
State Bank Note Varieties
7,000+
making detection nearly impossible
Dollar Purchasing Power
$0.34
at its wartime low
Secret Service Year 1 Arrests
200+
counterfeit operations shut down
Time to Fix
4 years
counterfeiting reduced to negligible by 1869
2020-2025: THE ISSUER
Internal Threat
National Debt Added Since COVID
+$15T
$23T to $38T in 5 years
M2 Money Supply Growth
+44%
$15.3T to $22T since Dec 2019
Money Created Since Jan 2020
29%
of ALL money currently in existence
Annual Interest on Debt
>$1T
now exceeds defense spending
Time to Fix
?
no enforcement mechanism exists
In 1865, Lincoln created a 10-person bureau to arrest counterfeiters and restore trust in the currency. By 1869, the problem was solved. Today, 29% of all money in existence has been created since January 2020 -- not by criminals, but by the institution charged with protecting it.
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
1860-1865
% of Currency That Was Counterfeit
Source: U.S. Secret Service historical records, National Archives
2019-2025
U.S. National Debt ($T)
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
+$6.7T
M2 MONEY SUPPLY ADDED
SINCE DEC 2019
SINCE DEC 2019
+$15T
NATIONAL DEBT ADDED
SINCE JAN 2020
SINCE JAN 2020
In 1865, counterfeiters diluted the money supply by an estimated 33-50%.
Since 2020, the U.S. government has expanded M2 by 44% and debt by 65%.
The mechanism changed. The effect didn't.
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
On August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window -- ending dollar convertibility and removing the last constraint on monetary expansion. Split the 160-year timeline here, and the story becomes unmistakable.
GOLD STANDARD ERA
1865 - 1971 · 106 years
Constrained
Gold reserves backed the dollar.
Convertibility enforced discipline.
Convertibility enforced discipline.
FIAT ERA
1971 - 2025 · 54 years
Unconstrained
No anchor. No convertibility.
Political will is the only limit.
Political will is the only limit.
Gold
| Value | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1865 | $20.67/oz | |
| 1971 | $35/oz | 0.50% |
| 2025 | ~$2,900/oz | ~8.5% |
Gold barely moved for 106 years -- because the dollar was gold. Once the tether was cut, gold compounded at 17x the prior rate.
U.S. National Debt
| Value | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1865 | ~$2.7B | |
| 1971 | ~$398B | 4.8% |
| 2025 | ~$38T | ~8.9% |
Debt grew ~95x in 54 years of fiat, vs ~148x across 106 years of gold-backed money. Nearly the same multiple in half the time.
M2 Money Supply
| Value | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1865 | ~$1.2B | |
| 1971 | ~$710B | 6.2% |
| 2025 | ~$22T | ~6.6% |
M2 rate looks consistent (~6%), but the absolute growth is staggering: +$21.3T in 54 years vs +$709B in the prior 106. Same rate, 30x the volume.
CPI (Consumer Prices)
| Value | CAGR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1865 | Base (~14) | |
| 1971 | ~40.5 | 1.0% |
| 2025 | ~320 | ~3.9% |
Inflation ran at ~1% annually for 106 years. Under fiat, it nearly quadrupled to ~3.9%.
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
THE APPLEGATE FLAG
The flag that draped Lincoln's coffin during the 1,654-mile funeral procession from Washington to Springfield was taken from the train by Senator Edwin D. Morgan and given to Dr. Lewis Applegate. It passed through his family for over 150 years.
1865
$0
Taken from the funeral train
1993-2021
Museum
Exhibited at Museum of Southern History
Nov 2024
$525,000
Sold at Guernsey's auction
A flag that cost nothing in 1865 is now worth $525,000. That's not because the flag got more valuable -- it's because the dollars got less.
A dollar saved on April 14, 1865 is worth approximately $0.05 today -- a 95%+ loss of purchasing power.
MAY 2025 LINCOLN AUCTION RESULTS
$1.51M
Blood-stained gloves
$826K
Handkerchief
$762K
Booth reward poster
$381K
Ford's Theatre ticket stub
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
160-Year CAGR (1865 to 2025)
| Artifact | Est. Cost | 2024/25 Sale | Multiple | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloves | $2 | $1,512,500 | 756,250x | ~8.8% |
| Handkerchief | $0.50 | $826,000 | 1,652,000x | ~9.4% |
| Coffin Flag | $10 | $525,000 | 52,500x | ~7.1% |
Estimated Post-1971 CAGR (54 years)
No public transaction exists for these items in 1971, so we present a range of conservative estimates.
Blood-Stained Gloves → $1,512,500
| Est. 1971 Value | Multiple | CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| $500 | 3,025x | ~15.7% |
| $1,000 | 1,513x | ~14.1% |
| $5,000 | 303x | ~11.1% |
Handkerchief → $826,000
| Est. 1971 Value | Multiple | CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| $100 | 8,260x | ~17.5% |
| $250 | 3,304x | ~15.7% |
| $1,000 | 826x | ~13.0% |
Coffin Flag → $525,000
| Est. 1971 Value | Multiple | CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| $500 | 1,050x | ~13.6% |
| $1,000 | 525x | ~12.3% |
| $5,000 | 105x | ~9.2% |
Composite: Since 1971
| Asset | CAGR | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln's Gloves | ~14% | ~1,500x |
| Lincoln's Handkerchief | ~14% | ~1,650x |
| Lincoln's Coffin Flag | ~12% | ~525x |
| Gold | ~8.5% | ~83x |
| U.S. National Debt | ~8.9% | ~95x |
| S&P 500 (price) | ~7.9% | ~60x |
| M2 Money Supply | ~6.6% | ~31x |
| CPI Inflation | ~3.9% | ~8x |
| U.S. Dollar | -3.9% | 0.13x |
The artifacts' post-1971 CAGR of 12-15% isn't Lincoln nostalgia. It's a receipt for 54 years of monetary expansion -- written on blood-stained leather and funeral bunting.
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
LINCOLN'S LOGIC, APPLIED FORWARD
Lincoln's Premise (1865)
If one-third of the currency is counterfeit, the republic cannot function. The integrity of money is a prerequisite for the integrity of the state. Create an enforcement mechanism.
The Problem Changed
By 2025, the counterfeiter is the issuer. 29% of all dollars in existence were created in the last five years. The Secret Service can't arrest the Treasury. No enforcement mechanism exists within the current system.
Lincoln's Logic, Extended
Lincoln was a pragmatist, not an ideologue. When state bank notes failed, he replaced them with a national currency. When counterfeiting threatened that currency, he created a bureau. His pattern: identify the structural flaw, then build the structural fix.
The Structural Fix
Bitcoin is the only monetary system where integrity is enforced by the protocol itself -- not by agents, agencies, or political will. Fixed supply. Deterministic issuance. No executive order can expand it. The enforcement mechanism is the code.
Would Lincoln have adopted Bitcoin?
Lincoln didn't ask whether the solution was popular. He asked whether it worked. He backed greenbacks when untested. He created a secret police force for currency when none existed. He chose structural integrity over political convenience -- every time.
The question isn't whether Lincoln would have adopted Bitcoin.
It's whether he would have tolerated the alternative.
1865
Protect the money
from counterfeiters
from counterfeiters
2025
Protect the money
from the money printer
from the money printer
Research: Risk Dimensions · Produced with Claude.ai · Sources: Public records & proprietary research
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io
Source data available to clients upon request · riskdimensions.io